Climate Mobility: An Urgent Imperative for Adaptation. Science, Policy, and Practice at the Intersection of Climate and Human Mobility

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a major driver of human mobility, reshaping demographic patterns and deepening social, economic, and ecological vulnerabilities. The World Bank’s updated Groundswell report estimates that up to 216 million people across six regions could be compelled to move internally by 2050, although many will be unable or unwilling to relocate as conditions worsen, leaving populations trapped in high-risk areas. Africa illustrates the scale and inequity of these impacts. Despite contributing less than 3 % of historic global emissions, the continent has seen 337 million people affected by climate-related disasters over the past two decades, and warming is estimated to have reduced GDP per capita by 13.6% since 1991. Under the Rocky Road (business as usual) scenario, internal climate mobility in Africa alone could reach 113 million people by 2050. In Latin America and the Caribbean, climate impacts are already damaging public finances, livelihoods, cultural heritage, and mental health. Up to 8.2 million people in the Greater Caribbean may have permanently moved by mid-century, while nearly 6 million could become trapped in place as opportunities decline. Vulnerability is uneven, with older people, those with lower income or education, and women facing distinct barriers. Young people show the strongest link between mobility choices and climate impacts.
In this seminar, we will explore the emerging concept of climate mobility from scientific, policy, and practice perspectives. The discussion will highlight the urgent need for climate adaptation using concrete examples from Tuvalu, the African continent, and Latin America and the Caribbean. We will introduce the main methods and tools used to understand current realities and project future mobility trends, explaining how these approaches work and highlighting their strengths and limitations. Particular attention will be given to the evidence base that informs mobility projections and the challenges of translating scientific insights into policy and planning.

Finally, the seminar will assess key areas where further research is needed. These include the interactions between climate mobility and physical and mental health, food, water and energy security, anticipatory urban planning, education, economic growth, and diplomacy. By addressing these cross-cutting issues, the session aims to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of climate mobility and its implications for climate adaptation and sustainable development.

References:
Clement, Viviane; Rigaud, Kanta Kumari; de Sherbinin, Alex; Jones, Bryan; Adamo, Susana; Schewe, Jacob; Sadiq, Nian; Shabahat, Elham. 2021. Groundswell Part 2: Acting on Internal Climate Migration. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36248 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Rosengaertner, S., Amakrane, K., Winkley, E., Basco-Carrera, L., de Sherbinin, A., Burzynski, M., Cottier, F., Adamo, S., Nicolle, H., Stoumen, N., Provost, D., Krisciunaite, A., Thomas, A. (2025). Great Caribbean Shifts: The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Report, Global Centre for Climate Mobility, New York.
Amakrane, K., Rosengaertner, S., Simpson, N.P., de Sherbinin, A., Linekar, J.; Horwood, C., Jones, B., Cottier, F., Adamo, S., Mills, B., Yetman, G., Chai-Onn, T., Squires, J., Schewe, J., Frouws, B., Forin, R. (2023). African Shifts: The Africa Climate Mobility Report, Addressing Climate-Forced Migration & Displacement; Africa Climate Mobility Initiative and Global Centre for Climate Mobility, New York. © Global Centre for Climate Mobility, License: CC BY-NC 4.0.